THT Ground Zero
Retired Major General of Nepali Army Binoj Basnyat holds a Master of Philosophy degree in Defense and Strategic Studies from the University of Madras. Basnyat who represented the UN Department of Political Affairs as a resource person for Sri Lanka's Transformational and Reconciliation program post-retirement is a renowned security analyst of the country. Ram Kumar Kamat of The Himalayan Times caught up with him to talk of India's Operation Sindoor against terrorists, impacts of armed conflict between India and Pakistan in the neighbourhood and South Asia region. Excerpts:
Operation Sindoor marked a significant escalation in India's counter-terrorism strategy. From your military experience, how would you evaluate the operation's tactical execution and its message to militant groups and Pakistan?
The targets chosen by the Indian military represented the fact that it was against terrorism and the facility that has been used for terrorism. The other angle of Operation Sindoor was that it gave a political message to Islamabad that India won't tolerate terrorist activities.
What do you think were the key strategic objectives behind Operation Sindoor, and do you believe those objectives have been achieved?
Strategic objectives of Operation Sindoor have not been achieved yet. I think India has given the political message but it has not yet achieved the strategic objective militarily yet so I think India may strike more chosen targets but neither military targets nor civilian targets. Given the capabilities of the Indian armed forces and the ammunitions, they use, India may further target terrorist camps, terrorists and their leadership using the modern technology.
How does Operation Sindoor compare with previous Indian military responses to cross-border terrorism, such as the 2016 surgical strikes or the Balakot airstrikes?
I think Operations Sindoor indicates that India is not willing to go for a large-scale conventional operation as it considers that launching from own side of the border is more practical than crossing the border. This time the target, operational preferences and mode of operation is different from past actions.
When you look at the sites that were hit under Operation Sindoor, you see that the targets were hit from within India using modern technology so the difference between what happened in the past and what happened now is that the targets have been chosen and targets were hit from own position that gave political message to both Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir.
Given Nepal's geographical proximity and open border with India, what immediate security challenges does Nepal face following Operation Sindoor?
Nepal has several things to consider. Somehow Nepal is involved in the war because of Nepali citizens are being part of the (Indian) defence. Since Nepal is the Chair of SAARC and it always condemns terrorism, Nepal has diplomatic obligations to support operations against terrorism so there are political, diplomatic and security related challenges that Nepal has to be prepared for.
This challenge can also be an opportunity for Nepal to strengthen its collaborations for countering terrorism. We can increase bilateral and regional interactions to find new ways to counter terrorism. As Nepal is a small country, diplomacy matters for us but our contribution to fight terrorism in South Asia matters for the entire South Asia because today's problem is not just bilateral, it is geopolitical and the geopolitical challenges have to have a common way of addressing the challenges. As terrorism is a common challenge, we need to find a common to response to this problem.
Do you foresee any changes in India-Nepal security cooperation or intelligence sharing as a result of heightened tensions between India and Pakistan?
As the Chair of SAARC, Nepal is diplomatically obliged to galvanise support to counter terrorism because SAARC Charter talks of cooperation against terrorism. When we look at the military relationship between Nepal and India, we see both countries are having joint military exercises. One component of such exercises is to promote collaboration for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations and another component is to promote cooperation to counter terrorism. This means Nepal will have to clear its own territory if there have been dormant activities in support of terrorism in the region.
Another thing is that Nepali citizens are involved (in Indian armed forces), if you remember Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014 when he delivered a speech in Nepal, he said that Nepalis' blood is part of India's sovereignty which means Nepali citizens will be participating in the fight against terrorism at the same time because we have the treaties and the MoUs that provides for the same.
And as SAARC adopted the regional conventions on suppressions of terrorism in 1997 in the third SAARC Summit, I think, Nepal has to take a firm stand or even take the initiative to get the SAARC countries on board on supporting the counter terrorism measures that India is taking.
Do you think Nepal and India should increase sharing of information, intelligence to counter terrorism?
Intelligence sharing during normal times and in times of crisis must have a different pattern. I think, increasing exchange of information and giving it to each other, I mean, India might have information about terrorist groups and even Nepal might have information about what is happening and that's why it is time that we strengthen exchange of information to counter terrorism even more than the normal times.
In the event of such a conflict, what would be the likely security, economic, and humanitarian impacts on Nepal? How should Nepal prepare for such contingencies?
I think this is an opportunity for Nepal. Opportunity in the sense this time because our strategic organisations will see how this works out because Nepal being a landlocked will have implications as India will have if the war escalates so Nepal must be prepared to support its citizens on basic needs. At the same time, Nepal also needs to take its measures to counter terrorism if it is dormant in Nepal or if Nepal's lands in one way or the other is being used to support terrorist activities in South Asia. So, I take this as Nepal's opportunity to address the challenges together with India and the other SAARC countries.
Nepal has occasionally been accused of being a transit point for militants. How credible are these concerns in the current context, and what measures should Nepal take to address them?
Regarding Nepal as a transit point, yes, we have been reading here and there about it but I am sure that the law enforcement forces on both sides have certain information about it and if they have such information, they should disclose it. I do agree with those who say that Nepal needs to clean up its territory to eliminate support for any kind of terrorist activities - moral, financial and any other kinds. As Nepal and India have open border and when India is tackling illegal migration, I think Nepal should follow suit. This will help Nepal to be stable and also contribute to counter terrorism.
What role should Nepal's military and security agencies play in preventing the spillover of terrorism from the India-Pakistan conflict into Nepal?
I think Nepal has seen this as a challenge. So has the security council meeting that took place. But there are few things that have come out. I hope that the defence forces are learning from their experiences in both BIMSTEC and bilateral meetings with India, the Indian Army and the best practices will prepare them to address the challenges. I think, the law enforcement forces and the intelligence group must be very actively involved in trying to locate anti-social elements and to gather information so that they can assist in helping fight and counter terrorism.
How should Nepal balance its diplomatic relations with India and Pakistan, while safeguarding its own national interests?
If you look at the statements that Nepal has been putting out, it has been very aggressive on condemning terrorism at the same time, Nepal has been very cautiously giving message of de-escalation which means Nepal as a friend of all South Asia, it needs to act geopolitically at the same time assist both internally for countering terrorism within the country. As the Chair of SAARC, Nepal should call on other nations to promote cooperation to counter terrorism.
What official stance do you think Nepal should adopt regarding India's cross-border counter-terrorism operations like Operation Sindoor?
I think Nepal should be very clear and transparent on its stand, to counter terrorism and to condemn such acts as Nepal as Nepal did against the Russian offensive against Ukraine. Nepal opposed aggression which means Nepal should oppose terrorist act in South Asia or any part of the world.
Looking ahead, what lessons can Nepal's defence and policy planners learn from Operation Sindoor to enhance national security and regional stability?
One thing nice about our vision at the international forums is there has been increased cooperation between military forces, law enforcement forces whether it is governmental organisations like BIMSTEC and BIMSTEC joint military exercises. They hold chiefs' conferences at the same time within SAARC Nepal and India hold bilateral exercises on common challenges so these are all important interactions that are taking place. I think Operation Sindoor gives a message that Nepal should remain vigilant that its soil should not be used against its neighbours. Nepal should diplomatically take a firm stance to counter terrorism. Nepal as the Chair of SAARC must stand against terrorism and actually bring on board as many countries as possible in South Asia so that all of us have a common stance on terrorism and to deescalate the war because there is no winner in the war. The only thing that can happen in war is exhaustion. Nepal needs to make diplomatic efforts so that it could stand as a neutral and non-aligned nation in helping counter terrorism.
I think Nepal has learnt enough from the hijacking of IC 814 plane but at the same time Nepal should not rule out the possibility of it happening again because terror acts usually leads to dividing society, dividing nations. Nepal needs to be extra cautious and must on its own make efforts to have dedicated intelligence particularly on terrorists and their activities and the risk of hijacking.
