Nepal is living with the climate crisis. Climate change is not a threat looming on the horizon; it is happening here, now and disproportionately affecting those least responsible for the problem. Our mountainous terrain and socio-economic fabric render us acutely vulnerable to its impacts. Our lands are warming more quickly than global average, glaciers are melting faster, monsoons are more erratic, lowlands are broiling under unprecedented heat, and highlands are buckling under floods and landslides.
As scientists and policy thinkers deeply engaged with Nepal's environmental future, we see with growing concern that while climate discourse is expanding in our media, institutions, and international representations, one crucial element is missing- the systematic scientific validation of climate change and its impacts in Nepal. Without a national framework for understanding climate risks, Nepal's policy responses remain largely reactive, fragmented and is insufficient.
This must change. Nepal urgently needs to institutionalize periodic National Climate Change Assessment (NCCA). It should be locally grounded, scientifically rigorous and policy-prescriptive in nature. NCCA is conducted every 5 to 10 years. It is a standard practice in countries that take climate resilience seriously. Nepal has never carried out a single one. Nepal can no longer afford to stand on the sidelines-drawing from the globally respected IPCC assessment model, it is imperative that we initiate our own NCCA process to ensure evidence-based, forward-looking policies that safeguard our people, ecosystems, and economy.
Climate change has already been a national agenda in every public discourse. Climate Change is here, But where Is the Science with national and local details we urgently need? Recent disasters speak the volumes. The glacial lake outburst flood in Thame in August 2024 and record-shattering rains and devastating monsoon floods in Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions in Sep 2024 are only the latest evidence of extreme weather events in a changing climate. Yet we still cannot confirm how much of these events were driven by climate change because we simply don't have the data and prompt studies to attribute such extreme events to climate change. Attribution science demands long-term temperature records, glacier monitoring, precipitation trends and river flow statistics-resources Nepal lacks in both quantity and quality.
This is not merely a technical limitation. Without these data, we cannot distinguish whether a landslide is triggered by climatic shifts, geological instability, or poor land management. And when everything is assumed to be climate-driven without evidence, we risk making misinformed decisions, misallocating resources, and weakening public trust in science and policy alike.
Nepal's Global Standing is undermined by data gaps
Despite our frequent appearance in global narratives as 'one of the most climate-vulnerable countries,' Nepal ranks only 69th on the latest Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index-far behind major global emitters like India and China. This is not because Nepal is less at risk, but because our risks, impacts, and vulnerabilities are under-studied and under-documented. Those countries have invested in comprehensive climate data infrastructure, regularly conduct scientific assessments, and make evidence-based claims that influence international and national decision-making.
Our country, in contrast relies heavily on project-based reports, NGO outputs, global assessments, and anecdotal evidence. While useful for raising awareness, these sources lack the scientific rigor and national and local specifics required to shape robust national policy or secure international climate finance and technologies. For instance, consider this fact - have we mapped the climate risks to our hydropower potential using consistent datasets and methodologies to understand what lies ahead in 2040, 2050, or 2100? And do we truly grasp the multiple, compounding hazards facing Nepal's diverse landscapes and communities - from the high Himalayas to the Tarai plains? The answer is no.
What is needed to be Changed and how ?
To shift from fragmented reactive measures to proactive, science-driven precision policies, Nepal must address five science-policy priorities. First, we must urgently invest in localized climate risk mapping throughout the country under high-resolution modeling for multiple future scenarios, e.g., 1.5°C, 2°C or 3°C global warming. Developing downscaled climate projections-such as CMIP6-based models at 5 km resolution-along with detailed socio-economic conditions and hazard maps for floods, droughts, GLOFs, landslides, and heat stress. This will allow planners and policymakers to design infrastructure and disaster responses based on likely future realities rather than past norms.
Second, the country must begin preparing for the limits of adaptation. Science shows that some biophysical and socio-economic systems-particularly in high-mountain regions-are approaching thresholds beyond which traditional adaptation strategies are no longer viable. Adaptation measures designed for a 1.5 degree world may prove inadequate at 2 degree, as many biophysical systems risk failure under higher temperature thresholds. National policies must start enabling alternative livelihoods, restoring degraded ecosystems, and supporting rights-based relocation options where necessary, especially in communities where adaptation is no longer feasible. It is already known that even limiting global warming to 1.5°C could result in 30% glacier volume loss in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region by 2100 with the potential for even greater losses if warming exceeds 2 degree. In this context, our adaptation strategies will likely need to designed for scenarios below that threshold - or at 0.5°C rise in temperature. We must bring this issue to the forefront of global forums.
Third, we have been a leader in aligning our climate commitments with global science and agreements. Nepal must more actively align national strategies with global climate frameworks while tailoring them to local realities. The latest IPCC reports and the Paris Agreement provide valuable scaffolding, but given that Himalayan warming is already outpacing global averages and global assessment do not provide local details, Nepal must regularly update its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as it began doing with NDC 3.0, using the latest scientific benchmarks, including overshoot pathway. As the in the IPCC assessment reports, scientific evidences from Nepal are less citied.
Fourth, the country must take concrete steps to operationalize climate justice. Vulnerability is unevenly distributed across the country. Rural poor, women, Indigenous peoples, and marginalized communities, settlements in multi-hazards risk areas face disproportionate climate risks. We need science-based vulnerability mapping to guide equitable investment. This means expanding gender-sensitive adaptation programs, piloting community-level insurance schemes, and ensuring fair access to both domestic and international climate finance mechanisms.
Fifth and most crucially, Nepal must dramatically scale up its scientific capacity. This includes establishing a more comprehensive weather and glacier monitoring networks, expanding research institutions in climate science, and developing a cadre of experts skilled in climate modeling, ecosystem science, and data interpretation. But generating knowledge is not enough-what matters most is ensuring that it flows into action. Strengthening the interface between science and policy, including platforms like the National Climate Council is essential to turn evidence into decisions that protect people, ecosystems, and infrastructure.
Institutionalizing National Climate Assessments
A Strategic Imperative - All these priorities converge into one fundamental need. Nepal must establish a legal and institutional framework to conduct its own country-led periodic NCCA. These assessments must be grounded in high-resolution, locally sourced data, incorporate knowledge of the country's diverse geophysical and socio-economic systems, and be aligned with global standards and scientific frameworks like those of the IPCC. Such an assessment will allow Nepal to craft region-specific responses: what works for a glacial valley in the Khumbu Pasang Lhamu Rural Municipality will not suit the agricultural plains of Urlabari Municipality in the Tarai. Without localized knowledge generated from a set of robust datasets and methodologies we are asking municipalities and provinces to build resilience in the dark.
Moreover, NCCAs will significantly strengthen our credibility in international climate negotiations and access to climate finance. When our delegates speak at global forums - such as attributing Sep 2024 rains and floods to climate change and seeking compensation for the resulting loses and damages – they must back their claims with verifiable, scieitific evidence. Nepal's persistent underrepresentation in many global climate reports stems from a simple but critical gap: the absence of nationally consolidated, peer-reviewed data and studies, and assessments of science of climate change (physical science, risks, vulnerability, impacts, and mitigation) that meet global standards.
Nepal has recently hosted the Sagarmatha Sambaad which signaled our willingness to lead regional conversations on climate change. But rhetoric must now be matched with rigor. We can no longer afford to rely on speculative attributions or reactive strategies. Climate change is not just part of the future; it is embedded in the present. Yet, understanding it is scientifically, systematically and locally is still not embedded in our national systems. This disconnect poses a grave risk. Without understanding what we are up against, how can we plan, protect or prosper ? While we did prepare a climate change factsheet for the Sagarmatha Sambaad, much of the data came from media reports rather than scientific sources - highlighting the need for stronger evidence-based contributions.
NCCA is not just a scientific exercise, it is a strategic imperative. For climate justice. For disaster resilience. For informed development. For Nepal's credibility on the global stage. Because resilience without evidence is not resilience - it is hope without a plan. Let Nepal lead with science. Let us institutionalize National Climate Assessments - before the next disaster reminds us why we should have. The pathway to a just and climate-resilient Nepal is clear: follow the science, empower the vulnerable, invest in data and institutions, mobilize financial and technological resources, and act decisively. We cannot afford delay.
Dr. Rupakheti is climate scientist and Vice-chair of IPCC Working Group I and Pokharel is climate researcher and science writer.
